• 2019 - Position 66


    Money Play. Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?

    Another classic middle game double. Red has threats and the position is volatile but that dead checker on the ace-point is a distinct weakness.

    However, turning the cube activates gammons and Red will win a fair few of those so the double is very clear – it is nearly a quadruple blunder not to double here.

    Equally well, Red is not favourite to close White out and White has a four-point board of his own. The take is therefore equally clear, it would be a triple blunder to drop.

    So the double and the take are both very clear.


    • 1. Apr 15 2019 7:59PM by Kruidenbuiltje

      Red only has a little advantage it seems.

      His board is 1 point stronger, he has the initiative and a race advantage.

      But white has outfield control.

      At first sight the red advantage seems a bit meagre and even somewhat balanced out with the white outfield control.

      The tricky thing is the combination of the 5-point red board with 3 white blots around the board, making the gammons count up more on the red side.

      Red has 22/36 hits, he mostly has only one cover-number after a hit making white return more than 1/3rd.

      But on the other hand white has a hard-to-cover 1-blot. I think all-in-all red will win around 2/3rd of this group say 14.5, gammons may be quite high in this group,

      say 50%.

      the other moves are: {D6,65,64,62,D5,54,52,42} = 14/36, of these I guess white is a 2/3rd favourite (he has more initial hits, but a weaker board)

      So red has about 4.5 in this group (white has 9.5 with about 25% gammon).

      Let's add up the estimated numbers: Red 19 wins + 7.3 gammons, White 17 wins + 2.3 gammons.

      Per saldo red has 19 wins + 5 gammons, counting as 21.5 wins, that's about 60%.

      Over the board I would not have doubled this, but as a problem I would think a double might be needed to activate gammons

      because of the high volatility and the Jacoby rule.

      So this is Double/Take.

    • 2. Apr 15 2019 11:33PM by Mackenzie

      With the volatility and number of gammons won from here, the double seems clear to me. White certainly has some liabilities, but if they can survive the next roll, they may be in decent shape (Red may even be forced to crush their board). I would say that this gives White a take.

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