• 2019 - Position 61

    XGID=aBDB-A------------------d-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

    Money Play. Should Red redouble? If redoubled, should White take?

    If you evaluate this position using Trice’s Rules for Effective Pip Counts as outlined in my Backgammon Races paper in the downloads section of this website, then you will find it is double/drop. However, that formula does not take account of White’s hitting chances.

    White will hit in approximately 5 games out of 36 which gives him added winning chances. Do the hits plus his racing chance add up to 25%? Not quite but the fact that he will own the cube gives him just enough to take, but only by a mere 0.015 equity points so don’t be ashamed of yourself if you chose to drop. If you chose not to double as Red now that is an entirely different matter!

    3 Comments

    • 1. Apr 8 2019 1:06PM by Peder

      RD/T. Shot chances, the possibility of a 6-roll and recube vig make me think that this is a take. Formulas don't help much.

    • 2. Apr 8 2019 8:52PM by Leo

      RD/T - 9 crossovers each, but red may leave a shot and white might scoot around the board with a couple of doubles. Not pleasant for white, though.

    • 3. Apr 9 2019 1:26AM by Mackenzie

      A formula that I saw by Mochy said that once your opponent has taken 10 checkers off, but has one checker on the bar, you only need 5 checkers off to have a redouble. Red has one more than this off, so my initial thought would be to pass as White. However, with about 11% chance to get a shot and hit it, I think White may have a marginal take here. RD/T

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