2019 - Position 213
By Chris Bray, Nov 22 2019 04:26PM
Money Play. Should Red redouble? If redoubled, should White take?
This is one that Reichert’s formula gets wrong, deeming it to be a pass.
I think this is due to it not correctly assessing the weakness of Red’s 1s and 3s while he has an even number of checkers.
In essence this is very close to a four-vs-four bear-off which would be double and take. In fact, this is a very big double but also a very easy take.
I'm not sure how to evaluate this type of position. It is essentially a pips vs. rolls position, except Red hardly has a perfect speed board, making the EPC is difficult to estimate. Only double fours will save a roll, and Red could easily miss by rolling two threes or two aces. All in all, it looks like both parties will finish in fours rolls (on average), so that should be a reasonable Redouble/Take.