2019 - Position 195
By Chris Bray, Oct 23 2019 11:17AM
Match Play. Red leads 11-10 to 13. Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?
This is a fairly simple problem. At this score the doubling window opens at 66.7% and closes at 75%. Red looks to be comfortably within that window (using the Trice adjusted Thorpe Count method) and White (using the same method) has a take. Naturally he will redouble to 4 and this game with decide the match.
Red’s exact game-winning chances are 73.35% (from XG).
D/T. Red is a clear favourite because of White's wastage. Still, White must have more than 25% winning chances.
D/T - Red might be behind in the pipcount, but adjustments for white's wastage on the 1pt, 2 gaps in his home board and 2 checkers in the outfield compared to red's one make this a double imo. I think it's a take, but it might be close.