2019 - Position 192
By Chris Bray, Oct 18 2019 04:10PM
Match Play. Red trails 1-4 to 7. How should Red play 61?
This one isn’t close. Red must hit. If White fans he must pass Red’s redouble.
Red would have only 10% winning chances from 1-6 (Crawford) behind and so losing a gammon here when things go wrong is no great loss.
For money, bar/24/18 is correct but only just. When in doubt, HIT!
To hit or not to hit. That is the question. Hitting leaves 13 immediate return shots, but if not hit I think red can cash with a recube. The safe play is only safe for that role, and jeopardy remains given white's strong home board and red's blot on his 1 pt. I'd hit. The risk is worth it. Bar 24,18/12*.
B/24, 18/12*. This will win more games, and the gammons lost are not very significant.
Bar 18 for me. With 3 checkers open Red is likely to have better opportunities to hit than with an open Ace point. This position is quite tempting to overplay.