• 2019 - Position 15

    XGID=cABB-BB--A-Ac----bbe-AA-B-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

    Match Play. Red leads 4-0 to 7. Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?

    Not a standard position! Is Red too good to double? After all a gammon gets him to 6-0 (Crawford)

    It is only the match score that gives White any semblance of a take. Meanwhile Red has some concerns about extricating his rear checkers. When I first saw this I though Red should play on but in fact he just enough trouble releasing those rear checkers that he should double now – it is an error not to do so. After all White will turn the cube to 4 at the slightest provocation.

    White may be tempted to take but three checkers on the bar plus no home board are just too much to overcome. He should drop and play from 0-5. Taking is an error but not a blunder.

    At 0-0 it would be nearly a double blunder to double, Red should play on for the gammon.

    2 Comments

    • 1. Jan 30 2019 7:48AM by Leo

      D/P - Red outboards white 4:1, is ahead in the race 30 pips before the roll and white has three checkers on the bar. If red didn't have 4 checkers of his own in white's home board I'd say this was too good, but as it stands, with relatively few cover numbers for the blot on the 1pt, I'd double and give white a tough decision. White may be tempted to take at this score, but with three on the bar he'd have to roll very well. I think it's too much and would reluctantly pass.

    • 2. Jan 30 2019 5:24PM by Michael

      In a money game this would be a TG, but here you have to estimate gammon rates and see at what point white can Take Ats. I estimated 60 Vs 20% looked at my tables and it's about 25% whereas below 23% it's TG for the opponent. so the question is whether white can get there. Assume he may may roll a 44 in the next 4 sequences (11%) or 2 consecutive 4s (another 11%) or even aces, it's certain that he gets back in the game more often than one could imgine.

      Question is how much he wins from there?? Touch question, I won't pretend I know the answer. It's not even clear to me whether it's a D/P or TG as they are so close to each other.

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