• 2019 - Position 116

    XGID=a-BBBbCD---Ab-----Abbcab--:0:0:1:63:6:0:1:7:10

    Match Play. Red leads 6-1 to 7 (Post-Crawford). How should Red play 63?

    This one is relatively easy unless you fear a very unlikely gammon loss. This is a pay me now pay me later problem and Red should pay now.

    After 18/9 Red leaves 8 shots but if not hit he is nearly home free and even if hit there is life after death because of the blot on White’s 3-pt.

    11/2 loses nearly 4% more games because of the difficulty of getting the blot on the 18-pt to safety. That play is a bad error but not quite a blunder.

    2 Comments

    • 1. Jun 27 2019 5:24AM by Leo

      18/9 or 11/2? 18/9 leaves 8 shots and 11/2 only 4. However, leaving the back checker where it is might lead to more jeopardy if white does enter (55%). Therefore, I'd pay now while there is a blot in white's home board with 18/9.

    • 2. Jun 27 2019 3:22PM by Mackenzie

      In positions similar to this, I tend to go for volunteering a few indirect shots over leaving one checker stranded in my opponent's outfield. It's true that Red may have some difficulty bringing the blot on the 18-pt home if White rolls a 5 (or even a 1). By the same token, White would often like to split their mid-point upon entering from the bar, in lieu of switch. However, after Red's 11/2, I fail to see any truly poor entering rolls for White: 41 could be played bar/20; 45 could be played bar/16. The quiz factor makes me want to say 11/2 is the answer, but I will stick with 18/9 as I would do over the board.

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