• 2019 - Position 101


    Match Play. Red leads 5-2 to 7. Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?

    Many would not double here but that would be a mistake.

    Yes, White will redouble to 4 but he has to win this game and the next one to win the match. Meanwhile Red is a big favourite not to be hit and White’s home board gives Red a lot of life even after being hit.

    If the score was 5-3 that would be a completely different matter as now four points win the match fro White with perfect efficiency. At that score Red should not double.

    For money, this is a double and a drop.

    I have often seen a reluctance to double at 2-away vs. 5-away but Red must play the percentages. This is a very clear double.


    • 1. Jun 5 2019 10:41PM by Ben

      This appears to me to represent a fine oppportunity for Red to attempt to win the match. White has little to lose. D/T.

    • 2. Jun 6 2019 12:08AM by Mackenzie

      For money, I believe this would be a clear double and an equally clear drop. At this score, it must be a take, and I don't know about the double yet. There are plenty of market losing sequences, yes -- but the threat of my opponent getting to Crawford is unsettling. Still, White's board is full of holes and currently has a blot in it. I'll go with D/T.

    • 3. Jun 6 2019 5:24AM by Leo

      Looks like a strong double for red, even at this score. If white passes, he has a 20% chance of winning - Can he do better than this by taking? I'm really not sure. Racing chances look pretty slim, so it's down to shot equity - I'd say it's very close - There are some bad rolls for red (66,22,33,42,32,21,41,51) and then white hits about 33% of the time . but even after a hit, red can escape and win the race. I'd say borderline take/pass.

    • 4. Jun 6 2019 8:59AM by Peder

      Red should double. If we give White 16% after a pass, she has to win nearly 24% from this position cubeless. It's hard to estimate, but it's close. I think I would follow Cooke's old advice: take against a strong player but drop against a weak one.

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