• 2018 - Position 219

    XGID=-CCCBb-B--B---------cbcbc-:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:5:10

    Match Play. Red leads 1-0 to 5. Should Red redouble? If redoubled, should White take?

    If White drops the redouble, he will trail 0-3 and have 27% match winning chances. Can he win enough games from this position to justify taking? He is very likely to get at least one shot although hitting won’t necessarily win as he has an open 6-pt. His other option is to roll a couple of large sets and win the race.

    A rollout gives him just over 27% so he can take.

    Should Red redouble? On a subjective basis I would say yes as the position is volatile and he is a very clear favourite. A detailed match equity calculation shows that Red is better off redoubling than holding the cube.

    The rollout confirms clear double (a blunder not to do so) and a clear take (a blunder to drop).

    2 Comments

    • 1. Dec 21 2018 8:15AM by Leo

      RD/T. Red is a big favourite here, with a racing lead of 19 pips before the roll, and white's open 6pt. The redouble is for the match if white accepts. I think white can take. He needs about 25% winning chances to take, and I think he has enough shot equity to do so.

    • 2. Dec 21 2018 2:23PM by Peder

      RD/T. I wouldn't redouble a much weaker opponent though.

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